Moody's outlook for 2026 remained unchanged on October 21, as the company reaffirmed its earnings and revenue growth forecasts alongside third-quarter results. Management continues to expect diluted earnings of $16.00–$16.50 per share and adjusted diluted earnings of $16.50–$17.00 per share, with revenue increasing in the high-single-digit percentage range.
Key Takeaways
- Moody's maintained its full-year earnings and revenue growth guidance rather than raising or narrowing the ranges.
- Third-quarter adjusted diluted EPS increased 6%, despite revenue growth of just 1%.
- The board declared a $1.03 quarterly dividend, payable December 11 to shareholders of record November 20.
Table of Contents
- Moody's outlook retains earnings and cash flow targets
- Quarterly earnings grew faster than revenue
- Dividend payment set for December
- Conclusion
Moody's outlook retains earnings and cash flow targets
Moody's third-quarter 2026 earnings release confirmed that all published financial guidance remained unchanged. The forecasts cover the full year ending December 31, 2026, and represent management expectations, not completed results.
The adjusted earnings range is a non-GAAP measure. Its reconciliation to reported earnings includes adjustments for acquisition-related intangible amortization, restructuring, a reserve for an international non-income tax obligation, duplicate headquarters rent and gains on business divestitures.
The unchanged financial targets do not mean every underlying assumption stayed the same. Moody's increased its expectation for the global speculative-grade default rate at year-end to around 3.8%, from around 3%, while maintaining its forecast for global rated issuance to rise in the mid-single-digit percentage range.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| 2026 operating margin guidance | 44%–45%; unchanged |
| 2026 adjusted operating margin guidance | 52%–53%; unchanged, non-GAAP |
| 2026 operating cash flow guidance | $3.15 billion–$3.35 billion; unchanged |
| 2026 free cash flow guidance | $2.7 billion–$2.9 billion; unchanged, non-GAAP |
| 2026 share repurchase guidance | Up to $3.0 billion, subject to stated conditions; unchanged |
Quarterly earnings grew faster than revenue
For the three months ended September 30, revenue rose to $2.023 billion from $2.007 billion a year earlier. Diluted EPS increased 18% to $4.24, while adjusted diluted EPS rose 6% to $4.14.
Performance differed between the two main businesses. Moody's Analytics revenue increased 3% to $936 million, while Moody's Investors Service revenue declined 1% to $1.087 billion. The company attributed the ratings business decline primarily to lower leveraged finance issuance against a record prior-year comparison.
The earnings growth came despite narrower margins: reported operating margin fell to 44.8% from 45.7%, and adjusted operating margin declined to 52.6% from 52.9%.
In pre-market trading on October 21, Moody's shares were quoted at $462.90, up $12.92, or 2.72%. That was a pre-market snapshot, not a closing price.
Dividend payment set for December
The board declared the regular quarterly dividend on October 20, 2026. The $1.03-per-share payment is due December 11 to holders of Moody's common stock recorded at the close of business on November 20.
Through September, Moody's had returned approximately $3.1 billion to shareholders, including about $2.6 billion in share repurchases and $543 million in dividends. Its full-year repurchase guidance remains conditional on available cash, market conditions, acquisition opportunities and other capital allocation decisions.
Conclusion
Moody's enters the final quarter of 2026 with its financial guidance intact, despite changes to some credit-market assumptions. The next confirmed shareholder dates are the November 20 dividend record date and the December 11 payment.
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