Miami housing had the largest surplus of sellers over buyers among the 50 most populous US metropolitan areas in September 2026. Redfin estimated 18,909 sellers and 7,304 buyers—a 158.9% gap—putting Miami ahead of Nashville and Houston as the national housing market tilted further toward buyers.
Key Takeaways
- Miami’s seller surplus widened from 134.5% in August to 158.9% in September.
- Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6%, the largest gap in records beginning in 2013.
- Greater negotiating power did not resolve affordability barriers that kept many potential buyers out.
Table of Contents
- Miami housing imbalance widened sharply
- Fewer buyers drove the national gap
- More choice does not mean affordable homes
- Conclusion
Miami housing imbalance widened sharply
Redfin’s September 2026 buyer-seller analysis, published October 14, showed Miami’s seller surplus increasing by 24.4 percentage points from August. That was the largest monthly widening among the buyer’s markets studied.
The figures describe a buyer’s advantage, not a seller’s advantage: when listings substantially outnumber prospective purchasers, buyers have more alternatives and sellers face more competition. Redfin defines a buyer’s market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers.
Miami, Nashville and Houston held the three largest seller surpluses for a second consecutive month. All 13 metropolitan areas where sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one were in the Sun Belt, including four in Florida and four in Texas.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Nashville | September 2026: 152.3% more sellers than buyers; 18,068 sellers and 7,161 buyers. |
| Houston | September 2026: 134.6% more sellers than buyers; 47,456 sellers and 20,230 buyers. |
| Austin | September 2026: 130.9% more sellers than buyers; 18,087 sellers and 7,834 buyers. |
| Tampa | September 2026: seller surplus of 103.7%, up from 82.2% in August. |
Fewer buyers drove the national gap
Across the United States, the estimated buyer count fell 2.4% from August to 928,892 in September, its fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading in records dating to 2013. Sellers increased 1.2% to 1,510,784, the highest level since March 2020.
Those opposing moves widened the national seller surplus from 56.9% to 62.6%, a fourth consecutive record. Redfin attributed the inventory buildup partly to homes remaining unsold while additional listings entered the market.
The estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. Sellers are measured using active multiple-listing-service listings; buyer estimates combine Redfin touring data with active listings and pending sales. They are not counts of completed transactions.
More choice does not mean affordable homes
Redfin classified 41 of the 50 metropolitan areas as buyer’s markets, four as balanced and five as seller’s markets. Robust homebuilding in parts of the Sun Belt has added supply even as demand cooled, while elevated housing costs have limited the pool of purchasers.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. The distinction matters: people who can afford to buy may have more room to negotiate, but a seller surplus alone does not establish that homes are affordable or that prices have fallen.
Conditions remained different in supply-constrained markets. Nassau County, New York, had the largest seller advantage, with 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, Newark, Milwaukee and San Francisco were the other seller’s markets.
Conclusion
September’s figures put Miami at the forefront of a broader shift toward buyer bargaining power. The key measure to watch in subsequent monthly data is whether buyer numbers stabilize relative to active listings—not simply whether more homes come onto the market.
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Disclaimer
This FinanceVelix article provides general information, not personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market prices, interest rates and economic conditions can change; investments carry a risk of loss. Facts reflect the material available when published and may change. Check important information independently and consult a qualified professional when needed. Mentioning an asset, company, or service is not an endorsement.
