SCA earnings held broadly steady in the third quarter of 2026 as stronger containerboard trading and lower maintenance costs offset weaker selling prices and adverse currency movements. The Swedish forest-products company reported EBITDA of SEK 1.631 billion on October 23, down 1% from a year earlier but up 25% from the second quarter.
Key Takeaways
- Quarterly sales rose 5%, while the EBITDA margin narrowed to 31.1% from 32.9% a year earlier.
- Containerboard strength contrasted with weak pulp markets and lower wood-products profitability.
- Management expects further wood-cost reductions in Q4, alongside higher chemical costs and a pulp maintenance impact.
Table of Contents
- SCA earnings recover sequentially, but annual pressures remain
- Containerboard leads a divided operating picture
- Lower wood costs offer Q4 relief, with offsets
- Obbola still needs time to reach full capacity
- Conclusion
SCA earnings recover sequentially, but annual pressures remain
SCA’s third-quarter results announcement showed net sales of SEK 5.248 billion, compared with SEK 4.993 billion a year earlier. Higher delivery volumes supported sales, while lower selling prices and negative exchange-rate effects worked in the opposite direction.
The sequential improvement was clearer: EBITDA increased from SEK 1.303 billion in the second quarter, and the margin rose from 25.3%. Higher selling prices, lower planned-maintenance costs, cheaper industrial wood inputs and seasonal cost reductions supported that recovery.
The stronger quarter did not erase the earlier decline. January–September EBITDA fell 24% to SEK 4.041 billion, with lower prices, adverse currency effects and higher raw-material costs weighing on the nine-month comparison.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Q3 operating profit | SEK 1.047 billion, versus SEK 1.112 billion a year earlier. |
| Q3 net profit | SEK 772 million, versus SEK 832 million a year earlier. |
| Q3 earnings per share | SEK 1.10, versus SEK 1.19 a year earlier. |
| Q3 operating cash flow | SEK 426 million, versus SEK 1.111 billion a year earlier. |
| Net debt to trailing EBITDA | 2.0 times, versus 1.7 times a year earlier and 2.1 times in Q2 2026. |
Containerboard leads a divided operating picture
Containerboard sales increased 12% and segment EBITDA rose 130% year over year. SCA implemented further kraftliner price increases during the quarter, while European packaging-paper demand benefited from stronger industrial production and demand from e-commerce and consumables.
Chief executive Ulf Larsson said additional price increases would feed into fourth-quarter results. He also acknowledged that a wide price gap between kraftliner and recycled-fiber testliner creates substitution risk, although SCA was not experiencing significant pressure.
Pulp remained weaker, with average selling prices declining slightly from the second quarter despite higher deliveries and good production. Wood products also faced pressure: the segment’s EBITDA margin fell to 8% from 15% a year earlier amid high raw-material costs and lower delivery volumes.
Energy costs had different effects across the group. High fuel prices hurt the forest and industrial businesses but supported renewable energy, where the EBITDA margin reached 42%.
Lower wood costs offer Q4 relief, with offsets
Chief financial officer Andreas Ewertz said sawlog and pulpwood costs fell about 5% in the third quarter from the preceding quarter. Management expects another 4%–5% reduction in the fourth quarter.
That provides a potential cost benefit for industrial operations, but not an unqualified improvement across SCA’s integrated business. Lower wood prices also affect forest earnings and reduce the value of chip byproducts sold as pulpwood.
Other pressures remain. Management expects chemical costs to rise, while colder weather in northern Sweden will increase industrial energy costs. A pulp maintenance stop that began near the end of the third quarter is expected to have most of its volume impact in Q4.
Obbola still needs time to reach full capacity
Larsson said the Obbola containerboard project needs about another year to reach its design capacity of 700,000 tonnes. The ramp-up therefore remains incomplete, delaying the full operating benefits.
Ewertz said the cost position was improving and shipments were shifting back from overseas markets to Europe, supporting gross profit. He described the original financial targets as achievable in a normal market once full production is reached, rather than as results already delivered.
Conclusion
The next test for SCA earnings is the fourth quarter, when management expects further kraftliner pricing benefits and lower wood costs. Those gains will face higher chemical and seasonal energy costs, alongside the planned pulp maintenance impact.
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