Nepa earnings for the third quarter of 2026 showed stronger subscription revenue and improved profitability, but weaker project work kept total sales below year-earlier levels. Results released on October 23 showed subscription revenue rising 14.8% to SEK 35.3 million, while net sales fell 2.6% to SEK 47.6 million.
Key Takeaways
- Subscription growth and a lower cost base lifted adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditure to SEK 2.3 million.
- Annual recurring revenue increased year over year but fell from Q2 as client losses and contract reductions weighed.
- Management expects delayed projects to return, while the board recruits a successor to CEO Anders Dahl.
Table of Contents
- Nepa earnings improve despite lower total sales
- Recurring growth masks sequential client pressure
- Delayed projects leave sales conversion in focus
- Cash outflow accompanies a planned leadership handover
- Conclusion
Nepa earnings improve despite lower total sales
The brand research and marketing optimization company reported adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditure of SEK 2.3 million, up from SEK 0.4 million a year earlier. The corresponding margin rose to 4.7% from 0.8%, showing that profitability improved even as revenue declined.
Nepa’s Q3 2026 interim results put quarterly gross margin at 75.6%, up 1.4 percentage points. The nine-month gross margin was 75.9%. Management attributed improved delivery efficiency partly to the use of artificial intelligence, while personnel costs fell 7% and other external costs declined 13% year over year.
Finance vice president Eduard Hogman said the company had room to grow within its existing workforce. October job advertisements were mainly for prioritized replacements rather than net additions, and expanding headcount was not the immediate priority.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Q3 net result | Loss of SEK 1.0 million, versus a loss of SEK 5.3 million a year earlier. |
| Q3 earnings per share | Negative SEK 0.13, versus negative SEK 0.68 a year earlier. |
| Nine-month net sales | SEK 153.5 million, down 5.6% as reported. |
| Nine-month adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditure | SEK 1.1 million, versus negative SEK 11.5 million a year earlier. |
Recurring growth masks sequential client pressure
Annual recurring revenue, or ARR, reached SEK 135.8 million, 9.7% above a year earlier but lower than in the second quarter. ARR bookings rose 11% year over year. The different directions matter: annual growth had not prevented a more recent contraction in the recurring revenue base.
Net revenue retention fell to 95.8%, while churn increased to 1.6% from 0.2% a year earlier. Hogman said one remaining legacy customer-experience client had left and a small number of core clients had reduced their contracts for the next 12 months.
Management continued to emphasize Trinity, which combines brand tracking, campaign evaluation and continuous marketing mix modeling. Dahl described strong product-market fit, but the company did not disclose separate customer or ARR figures for continuous marketing mix modeling.
Delayed projects leave sales conversion in focus
Ad hoc revenue from subscribers fell 27.3%, while ad hoc revenue from other clients declined 33.2%. Total sales bookings dropped 52.5%, reflecting weaker project bookings rather than the increase in ARR bookings.
Dahl said several large projects had slipped toward the end of the quarter and were expected to return in the following quarter or quarters. He described clients as delaying decisions rather than abandoning projects. Those comments represent management expectations, not confirmed revenue.
The company has increased marketing, hired a new vice president of sales and focused on converting its pipeline into signed business. The key commercial question is whether those efforts can turn subscription momentum into growth in total sales.
Cash outflow accompanies a planned leadership handover
Net cash flow was negative SEK 9.1 million in Q3, compared with negative SEK 2.6 million a year earlier. This cash measure remained negative despite the improvement in adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditure.
Nepa announced that Dahl will leave during the first quarter of 2027, and the board has begun recruiting his successor. Dahl said the Trinity strategy remained in place, while making clear he could not speak for the next CEO’s or board’s future decisions.
Conclusion
The next test for Nepa earnings is whether delayed project decisions convert into fourth-quarter bookings alongside continued recurring revenue growth. The board’s recruitment of a new CEO is the other confirmed process to watch ahead of the planned first-quarter 2027 handover.
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