Jefferies cut its base-case price target for Vodafone Idea shares to ₹16 from ₹20, while outlining scenarios ranging from a 25% decline to a 143% gain. The brokerage said on October 27, 2026, that its revised target implied 34% upside from the share price used in its analysis.

Key Takeaways

  • Jefferies expects Vodafone Idea’s network-site count to rise 26% over FY26–FY29.
  • The brokerage estimates annualized revenue growth of 11% and cash EBITDA growth of 25% over the same period.

Vodafone Idea shares face divergent scenarios

The brokerage’s bull and bear cases reflect different assumptions about tariffs, margins and valuation. They are projections rather than guaranteed share-price outcomes.

Vodafone Idea shares had fallen 10% over the preceding month but remained up 5% for the year to date. The source did not specify a current share price.

Network expansion and subscriber trends

Jefferies expects Vodafone Idea’s network sites to increase to 261,000 over FY26–FY29. It forecasts that the consumer subscriber base will grow by 6 million over FY27–FY29 as a larger network supports customer additions and helps reduce churn.

Over the preceding three months, the average monthly decline in active mobile subscribers, excluding machine-to-machine connections, narrowed to 0.6 million from 1 million over the preceding two years. Broadband base stations increased 39% and network sites expanded 14% over the past two years.

Tariff assumptions shape earnings outlook

Jefferies estimates that a 10% tariff increase would raise Vodafone Idea’s cash EBITDA by 17%. That is a sensitivity estimate, not an announced tariff increase.

For FY26–FY29, the brokerage forecasts compound annual growth of 11% in revenue and 25% in cash EBITDA. Under scenarios that assume cumulative tariff increases of between 0% and 25% from FY27 to FY29, it estimates cash EBITDA could range from ₹147 billion to ₹224 billion.

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