As of October 21, 2026, approximately 83% of surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its December 18 meeting, compared with 35% in the previous month’s survey.
Key Takeaways
- About 83% of surveyed economists expect a rate increase on December 18, up from 35% a month earlier.
- Economists anticipate no increase at the upcoming policy meeting ending October 30.
- The policy rate stands at 1.25%, following increases in June and September.
Table of Contents
BOJ rate outlook centers on December
The survey points to a pause at the nearer-term meeting rather than an immediate increase. Economists expect the BOJ to leave rates unchanged when its upcoming policy meeting concludes on October 30, while a large majority now see December as the next opportunity for a hike.
The share forecasting a December increase rose by approximately 48 percentage points from the previous survey. Those responses reflect economists’ expectations, not an announced BOJ decision.
Earlier increases set the policy backdrop
The BOJ has already raised rates in June and September.
The BOJ established its 2% inflation target in 2013.
Conclusion
December has become the clear focus of surveyed economists’ rate expectations, while October is expected to bring a pause. A further increase remains a forecast rather than a completed policy action.
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