Bitcoin macro events are in focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28, 2026 rate decision. Past meetings and inflation releases have coincided with sharp price moves, though research suggests Bitcoin’s response depends on the surprise in the data or decision rather than the event alone.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin rose after just one of eight Fed meetings in 2025, according to CoinGecko.
  • Block Scholes research found CPI surprises explained about a quarter of the variation in Bitcoin’s first-hour returns across a six-year sample.
  • The Fed’s next scheduled decisions are on October 28 and December 9, 2026.

Bitcoin macro events: the Fed calendar

The Federal Open Market Committee has eight scheduled meetings in 2026. Its September 16 decision raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Decisions are announced at 2 p.m. Eastern on the final day of a meeting.

CoinGecko found that Bitcoin rallied after only one of the Fed’s eight meetings in 2025. The positive 48-hour period followed the May decision to hold rates steady, when Bitcoin gained approximately 15%. The Fed cut rates three times during 2025, by a total of 75 basis points.

The pattern does not establish that Fed decisions caused each move. It does show that rate cuts did not consistently coincide with a Bitcoin rally in that sample.

Inflation surprises and the first hour

Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman studied Bitcoin’s response to consumer price index surprises over a six-year sample beginning in 2020. The research found that surprises explained approximately 25% of the variation in Bitcoin’s first-hour returns.

Across the sample, an inflation reading one percentage point above expectations corresponded to roughly a 5.5% decline in Bitcoin over the following hour. The relationship varied over time: its explanatory power peaked at 52% from December 2021 to November 2023, faded in late 2024 and 2025, and re-emerged in 2026.

Block Scholes found no comparable effect over four- to 24-hour horizons. The findings describe historical relationships, not a guaranteed response to a future release.

Dollar correlation and ETF flows

Bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with the US dollar index was approximately negative 0.85 through the first half of 2026, based on CoinDesk data. A negative correlation indicates that the two tended to move in opposite directions over that period; it does not establish that a dollar move caused a Bitcoin move.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $4.5 billion in cumulative outflows in June 2026. On July 3, they saw a $221.7 million single-day inflow after a US jobs report showed 57,000 jobs added against expectations of 110,000.

Next milestone

The next scheduled Fed decision is October 28, followed by another meeting on December 9. The October CPI report is due in mid-November.

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