Cleveland-Cliffs EBITDA more than doubled in the third quarter of 2026, with the steelmaker reporting adjusted EBITDA of $612 million and forecasting another increase in the fourth quarter. Results announced October 19 for the period ended September 30 also showed a return to GAAP profitability, while management projected adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion for 2027.
Key Takeaways
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose $326 million from the preceding quarter and exceeded management’s earlier guidance.
- Management expects approximately $715 million in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, supported by higher pricing.
- The 2027 outlook depends on contract changes and prevailing price forecasts, rather than completed financial results.
Table of Contents
- Cleveland-Cliffs EBITDA beats earlier guidance
- Higher pricing underpins Q4 and 2027 expectations
- Debt reduction and Stelco changes remain priorities
- Conclusion
Cleveland-Cliffs EBITDA beats earlier guidance
The company’s third-quarter results announcement showed adjusted EBITDA increasing from $286 million in the second quarter to $612 million. That was also $37 million above the $575 million guidance management had provided three months earlier.
Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said average selling prices, sales volumes and unit costs all improved from the preceding quarter. Consolidated revenue rose to $5.612 billion from $5.226 billion.
The improvement extended beyond the adjusted earnings measure. Cleveland-Cliffs recorded GAAP net income of $165 million, compared with a $134 million net loss in the second quarter. However, the quarterly recovery did not erase earlier losses: its consolidated net loss for the first nine months of 2026 was $198 million.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Q3 diluted GAAP earnings | $0.26 per share |
| Q3 adjusted diluted earnings | $0.28 per share |
| Q3 steel product sales volume | 4.150 million net tons, versus 4.025 million in Q2 |
| Average steel selling price | $1,177 per net ton in Q3, versus $1,124 in Q2 |
| Quarter-end liquidity | $3.2 billion as of September 30, 2026 |
Higher pricing underpins Q4 and 2027 expectations
Cleveland-Cliffs expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $715 million, implying a $103 million sequential increase. Management expects higher pricing to outweigh seasonal weakness, increased maintenance outages, input costs and incentive compensation accruals.
For 2027, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, based on contract changes and prevailing price forecasts. Goncalves said newly signed customer contracts supported that expectation.
These figures are management forecasts, not reported earnings. The fourth-quarter outlook anticipates further improvement despite operating headwinds, while the 2027 expectation remains sensitive to steel prices and contract performance.
Debt reduction and Stelco changes remain priorities
Goncalves said the company reduced debt during the third quarter and expects a larger reduction in the fourth quarter, supported by anticipated free cash flow and property sale proceeds. Management maintained its target of net debt below 2.5 times EBITDA by mid-2027.
At Stelco, management said an improved Canadian hot-rolled steel market helped the business contribute positively to third-quarter EBITDA. Cleveland-Cliffs nevertheless announced that it would indefinitely idle Stelco’s galvanizing lines, citing oversupply in that market.
The company said it would maintain total production tonnage at Stelco by concentrating on hot-rolled products. Goncalves said affected employees would return when conditions improve, but provided no restart date.
Conclusion
The next test is whether fourth-quarter pricing delivers the projected earnings increase and supports management’s planned debt reduction. The longer-term 2027 outlook remains an expectation tied to contracts and steel-price assumptions.
Read More News
Disclaimer
This FinanceVelix article provides general information, not personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market prices, interest rates and economic conditions can change; investments carry a risk of loss. Facts reflect the material available when published and may change. Check important information independently and consult a qualified professional when needed. Mentioning an asset, company, or service is not an endorsement.
