Citizens outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 calls for noninterest income growth of 4%–5%, an approximately 1% increase in noninterest expenses and $200 million in planned share repurchases. The guidance provided on October 16 also anticipates stable to slightly lower net charge-offs and a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.6%–10.7%.
Key Takeaways
- Management projects fee-income growth alongside a smaller increase in operating expenses.
- Credit losses are expected to remain stable or ease slightly, rather than deteriorate.
- Planned quarterly buybacks are separate from the bank’s larger repurchase authorization.
Table of Contents
- Citizens outlook targets renewed fee-income growth
- Credit and capital forecasts build on third-quarter results
- Quarterly buyback plan differs from total authorization
- Conclusion
Citizens outlook targets renewed fee-income growth
The fourth-quarter forecast follows a third quarter in which noninterest income fell 1% from the preceding quarter to $647 million. Record wealth fees did not fully offset weaker mortgage banking and capital markets fees.
The projected 4%–5% increase would mark renewed growth in revenue outside the bank’s interest-earning businesses. Management also expects noninterest expenses to rise approximately 1%; both figures are forecasts, not completed fourth-quarter results.
The third-quarter fee mix illustrates the different starting points across these businesses. Wealth fees increased from the preceding quarter, while mortgage banking and capital markets fees declined.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 wealth fees | $109 million, up $7 million from Q2. |
| Q3 2026 capital markets fees | $149 million, down $4 million from Q2. |
| Q3 2026 mortgage banking fees | $35 million, down $7 million from Q2. |
Credit and capital forecasts build on third-quarter results
Citizens’ third-quarter 2026 earnings release showed net charge-offs of 0.37% of average loans and leases, unchanged from the second quarter. Its reported CET1 ratio was 10.5%, with current-period regulatory capital ratios identified as preliminary.
For the fourth quarter, management expects net charge-offs to remain stable or decline slightly and projects CET1 of 10.6%–10.7%. The credit forecast therefore points to continuity with the latest quarter, while the capital forecast is above the reported third-quarter level.
CET1 measures a bank’s core equity capital relative to risk-weighted assets. The projected ratio is a capital-planning benchmark, not a guarantee that credit conditions or distributions will develop as expected.
Quarterly buyback plan differs from total authorization
The planned $200 million in fourth-quarter repurchases should not be confused with the total capacity available under Citizens’ share repurchase program. The board increased that capacity to $1.95 billion, adding $1.3 billion to the $650 million remaining under its June 2025 authorization.
Authorization establishes capacity to repurchase shares; it does not mean the entire amount has been spent or will be spent in the fourth quarter.
The board also declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.52 per share, up $0.06, or 13%, from the prior quarter. Payment is scheduled for November 13, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on October 30.
Conclusion
Fourth-quarter results will show whether fee growth, credit losses and repurchases meet management’s plans. The next confirmed shareholder dates are the October 30 dividend record date and November 13 payment date.
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