HDFC Bank earnings are expected to show higher net interest income but more modest profit growth for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. As of October 16, brokerage forecasts pointed to annual net interest income growth of 7.7%–8.9%, while profit estimates varied more widely ahead of the scheduled October 17 results.
Key Takeaways
- Brokerages forecast profit growth of 1.4%–8.3%, reflecting different expectations for costs, income and provisions.
- Interest margins are expected to narrow despite continued lending growth.
- Deposit mobilisation and credit costs will help explain the quality of the earnings performance.
Table of Contents
- HDFC Bank earnings expectations diverge on profit
- Margin pressure could limit the benefit of loan growth
- Deposit growth sets the funding test
- Credit costs remain a separate profit variable
- Conclusion
HDFC Bank earnings expectations diverge on profit
HDFC Bank’s financial results calendar schedules board consideration of the unaudited standalone and consolidated results for the quarter and half-year ended September 30, 2026, on Saturday, October 17. The figures discussed here are brokerage forecasts ahead of that announcement, not reported results or management guidance.
JM Financial expects profit after tax to rise 1.4% year over year, compared with 3.9% at Motilal Oswal Financial Services and 8.3% at ICICI Securities. Their net interest income forecasts are more closely grouped, suggesting greater agreement on lending income than on the final profit outcome.
Pre-provision operating profit is expected to grow by only 2.4%–4% across the three estimates. That makes provisions and other items below operating profit important to understanding any difference between operating and net earnings growth.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| JM Financial forecast | Q2 FY27 net interest income: Rs 34,158.9 crore; profit after tax: Rs 18,908 crore. |
| ICICI Securities forecast | Q2 FY27 net interest income: Rs 33,978.8 crore; profit after tax: Rs 20,195.9 crore. |
| Motilal Oswal forecast | Q2 FY27 net interest income: Rs 34,370 crore; profit after tax: Rs 19,370 crore. |
Margin pressure could limit the benefit of loan growth
Net interest income—the difference between interest earned and interest paid—is expected to increase only modestly from the June quarter. The brokerages project sequential growth of 1.3%–2.5%, slower than their annual growth forecasts.
ICICI Securities expects net interest margin of 3.31%, down from 3.40% both in the preceding quarter and a year earlier. Motilal Oswal expects an eight-basis-point sequential decline.
Growing the loan book does not necessarily produce equally strong income growth when the margin earned on assets narrows. Management’s discussion of deposit pricing, funding costs and lending yields will therefore be important alongside the headline income figure.
Deposit growth sets the funding test
Motilal Oswal expects deposits to increase 19.4% year over year and 5.5% sequentially, supported by foreign currency non-resident bank deposit inflows. It forecasts loan growth of 14.9% annually and 2.3% from the June quarter.
The brokerage expects business banking, corporate and agricultural lending to lead expansion, while mortgage growth lags. Deposit growth would help fund that lending, but the cost and sustainability of inflows also matter for margins.
Credit costs remain a separate profit variable
Motilal Oswal expects credit costs of 45–50 basis points, with the gross non-performing asset ratio easing to 1.1% from 1.2% in the June quarter. It forecasts the net non-performing asset ratio remaining at 0.4%.
ICICI Securities expects fresh slippages—loans newly classified as non-performing—to decline 10% sequentially to Rs 7,200 crore. These estimates suggest broadly stable asset quality, but the actual provision charge will determine how much operating income reaches the bottom line.
Conclusion
The October 17 results are the next confirmed checkpoint. The key comparison will be whether lending and deposit growth offset narrower margins, and whether credit costs keep profit within the brokerages’ forecast range.
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