On October twenty-first, twenty twenty-six, Bitcoin resistance was concentrating around $87,700, where a group of holders could recover their acquisition costs after sitting on unrealized losses, according to Glassnode analysis. Several nearby technical levels reinforce that barrier, while exchange bids and the acquisition cost of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds point to a separate support zone around $80,000.
Key Takeaways
- The aggregate cost basis of holders who bought six to twelve months earlier stands at $87,700, creating a potential source of breakeven selling.
- The opening price for 2026 and the 20-month moving average add resistance immediately above $87,000.
- Exchange bids around $80,000 overlap with the spot ETF cost basis at $81,500, making that area important to Glassnode’s support analysis.
Table of Contents
- Why Bitcoin resistance follows holders’ breakeven prices
- Several barriers sit immediately above $87,000
- Where exchange bids and ETF costs overlap
Why Bitcoin resistance follows holders’ breakeven prices
Glassnode’s analysis centers on investors whose holdings have fallen below their aggregate purchase price. When Bitcoin recovers toward that cost basis, holders looking to exit without a loss can add selling pressure. In the episodes examined by the analytics firm, new demand was insufficient to absorb those sales.
The six-to-twelve-month holder cohort currently has an aggregate cost basis of $87,700. Holders who bought one to two years earlier have a higher breakeven level of $99,500. These are group-level acquisition measures, rather than prices at which every investor in either cohort purchased Bitcoin.
Earlier encounters with those measures illustrate why Glassnode is watching them. Bitcoin’s January recovery met the six-to-twelve-month cohort’s cost basis at $97,100 before a rejection. In May, the one-to-two-year cohort’s cost basis stopped a rebound just above $82,000. Glassnode described the subsequent declines as more than a third and about a quarter, respectively.
The firm also reported that one-to-two-year holders increased their selling during the rally at the start of October. That observation adds recent selling behavior to the historical pattern behind its analysis.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Six-to-twelve-month holders | $87,700 aggregate cost basis; the nearer cohort-based resistance. |
| Opening price for 2026 | $87,490; part of the resistance cluster above $87,000. |
| 20-month simple moving average | $87,165; another nearby technical reference. |
| One-to-two-year holders | $99,500 aggregate cost basis; a higher cohort breakeven level. |
| US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis | $81,500; the upper reference in the overlapping support area. |
| Exchange bid concentration | $80,000; a psychological level attracting order-book liquidity. |
| True market mean | $77,500; the cost basis of Bitcoin acquired on secondary markets. |
| Short-term holder cost basis | $74,600; the breakeven measure for holders of up to six months. |
Several barriers sit immediately above $87,000
The $87,700 cohort cost basis is not an isolated threshold. Bitcoin’s opening price for 2026 was $87,490, while its 20-month simple moving average stands at $87,165. Their proximity creates a cluster of reference levels rather than a single resistance line.
The more distant $99,500 cost basis belongs to the older holder cohort. Keeping it separate from the nearer resistance zone matters: the measures track different groups, and their breakeven prices have changed over time.
Where exchange bids and ETF costs overlap
Below spot prices, Glassnode places the aggregate acquisition cost of US spot Bitcoin ETFs at $81,500. Exchange order books show bid liquidity gathering around the psychological $80,000 level, producing an area where onchain cost-basis analysis and visible buying interest overlap.
Glassnode’s conditional downside assessment focuses first on that overlap. A break below it would bring a liquidation cluster just under $80,000 into consideration, followed by the true market mean, calculated at $77,500.
The true market mean represents the cost basis of Bitcoin acquired on secondary markets. A separate measure for short-term holders—entities holding Bitcoin for up to six months without selling—stands lower, at $74,600. These measures identify distinct groups and market reference points, not interchangeable guarantees of support.
Read More News
Disclaimer
This FinanceVelix article provides general information, not personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market prices, interest rates and economic conditions can change; investments carry a risk of loss. Facts reflect the material available when published and may change. Check important information independently and consult a qualified professional when needed. Mentioning an asset, company, or service is not an endorsement.
