American Express earnings guidance rose for full-year 2026 on October 23 after the payments company reported higher third-quarter revenue and profit. Management now expects reported earnings of $18.30–$18.60 per share, up from $17.30–$17.90, while keeping its annual revenue growth outlook at 10%.
Key Takeaways
- American Express raised its full-year reported EPS forecast but left revenue growth guidance unchanged.
- Third-quarter reported EPS rose 31%; adjusted EPS increased 13%, excluding a sale gain and restructuring charge.
- Shares were down 1.94% in premarket trading despite the higher earnings outlook.
Table of Contents
- American Express earnings outlook separates reported and adjusted profit
- Sale gain boosts reported third-quarter profit
- Card spending supports revenue as credit provisions fall
- Conclusion
American Express earnings outlook separates reported and adjusted profit
The company’s third-quarter 2026 earnings release puts adjusted full-year EPS guidance at $17.60–$17.90. That measure excludes the gain from selling its equity investment in Global Business Travel Group, net of a restructuring charge, making it distinct from the higher reported earnings range.
Chairman and Chief Executive Stephen J. Squeri attributed the revised outlook to year-to-date performance. He cited strength in card spending, new customer acquisitions and card member retention, alongside strong credit quality.
The unchanged revenue target means the earnings upgrade does not represent a higher sales-growth forecast. Investors also need to distinguish the benefit of the investment sale from growth in ongoing operations.
American Express shares traded at $318.75 in premarket trading on October 23, down $6.32, or 1.94%. The price move alone does not establish why investors were selling.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Nine-month revenue net of interest expense | $58.606 billion, up 10% year over year. |
| Nine-month net income | $9.794 billion, up 17% year over year. |
| Nine-month reported diluted EPS | $14.22, up 20% year over year. |
| Nine-month adjusted diluted EPS | $13.49, up 14% year over year. |
Sale gain boosts reported third-quarter profit
For the quarter ended September 30, net income increased 28% to $3.7 billion from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Reported diluted EPS rose to $5.42 from $4.14.
Adjusted net income was $3.2 billion, with adjusted EPS of $4.68, up 13%. The adjustment removes the $982 million pretax gain on the Global Business Travel Group investment sale and the associated $336 million pretax restructuring charge.
A lower tax rate also supported reported profit. The effective rate fell to 18.1% from 24.1%, primarily because of discrete tax benefits tied to the resolution of prior-period tax items. These factors help explain why reported earnings grew much faster than adjusted earnings.
Card spending supports revenue as credit provisions fall
Third-quarter revenue net of interest expense reached $20.1 billion, up 9% year over year. American Express attributed the increase mainly to higher card member spending, increased net interest income supported by growing card balances, and stronger card fees. Billed business rose 8% to $454 billion.
Provisions for credit losses declined to $1.0 billion from $1.3 billion. A reserve release, compared with a reserve build a year earlier, more than offset higher net write-offs. The principal-only net write-off rate for consumer and small-business card balances nevertheless edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%.
Expenses increased 9% to $14.5 billion, with higher customer engagement costs linked to spending and the U.S. Platinum Card refresh partly offset by lower operating expenses.
Conclusion
Fourth-quarter performance will determine whether American Express meets its higher full-year earnings range and unchanged 10% revenue growth target. The key distinction remains how much profit growth comes from ongoing operations rather than the investment sale and tax benefits.
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