Titan jewellery growth is expected to moderate in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, as easing gold price inflation and a shift in festival purchases temper sales growth. Brokerage forecasts ahead of the company’s November 5 results point to continued demand for studded jewellery, but pressure on jewellery profitability from elevated gold prices and increased gold exchange activity.
Key Takeaways
- Kotak Securities forecasts domestic recurring jewellery sales growth of 30%, down from 38% in the June quarter.
- Some festival purchases shifted into the December quarter as Navratri moved to October.
- Brokerages expect continued growth in watches and eyewear, while jewellery margins face pressure.
Table of Contents
- Titan jewellery growth faces a calendar drag
- Studded jewellery outpaces plain gold
- Broader retail growth ahead of November results
- Conclusion
Titan jewellery growth faces a calendar drag
Kotak Securities estimates domestic recurring jewellery sales, excluding bullion, will rise 30% year over year in the September quarter. It expects like-for-like growth of 22%, compared with 33% in the preceding quarter.
The brokerage attributes part of the slowdown to gold price inflation easing to 45% from 55%, alongside the shift of Navratri to October. It estimates that the festival calendar could reduce September-quarter growth by 400–500 basis points, equivalent to 4–5 percentage points.
That timing matters when interpreting the slowdown: some purchases moved into the December quarter rather than taking place before September ended. Slower gold price inflation also reduces the price-driven contribution to sales growth; it does not mean gold prices have fallen.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Watches — Kotak forecast | Sales growth of 15%; EBIT margin of 15%, down 120 basis points year over year. |
| Eyewear — Kotak forecast | Sales growth of 14%; margin of 9%, up 350 basis points year over year. |
| Retail network | 78 net stores added during the quarter, taking the combined network to 3,758. |
Studded jewellery outpaces plain gold
Motilal Oswal put growth in Titan’s jewellery portfolio at around 21% for the quarter, with domestic jewellery sales rising 20% and CaratLane growing 32%. These figures cover differently described measures from Kotak’s recurring domestic sales estimate and should not be treated as a single consensus forecast.
Studded jewellery grew in the early-30% range, supported by promotional campaigns, while plain gold jewellery sales increased around 20%. Buyer growth remained in the mid-single digits, with average ticket sizes rising in double digits.
Despite that product demand, Kotak expects jewellery earnings before interest and tax margin to slip 10 basis points year over year to 10.7%. Higher gold coin sales, elevated gold prices and increased gold exchange activity are expected to temper profitability.
Broader retail growth ahead of November results
Brokerages put growth across Titan’s consumer businesses at around 25%. Kotak expects watches and eyewear to continue expanding, with demand for analogue watches supporting the watches business. It forecasts recurring profit after tax growth of 29% year over year.
Titan’s September-quarter disclosure listings include an October 6 quarterly update for Q2 FY2026–27 and an October 20 board-meeting notice concerning unaudited results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Those listings establish the disclosure sequence, rather than substantiating the brokerage sales and margin estimates.
The November 5 results will provide the financial figures against which those forecasts can be assessed.
Conclusion
Titan’s November 5, 2026 results are the next scheduled checkpoint for assessing whether studded jewellery demand offset the festival-calendar drag and how gold prices and exchange activity affected margins.
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