Texas Instruments outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 calls for revenue of $5.80 billion to $6.30 billion and earnings of $2.45 to $2.79 per share. The chipmaker issued the forecast on October 21 after reporting third-quarter revenue growth of 28%, supported by industrial, automotive and data-center demand.
Key Takeaways
- The fourth-quarter revenue forecast has a midpoint roughly level with third-quarter sales.
- Third-quarter earnings per share rose 77% to $2.62 as profit growth outpaced revenue growth.
- Trailing 12-month cash generation increased, while total shareholder distributions declined.
Table of Contents
- Texas Instruments outlook points to broadly steady quarterly sales
- Industrial and automotive growth supports stronger profit
- Higher cash generation accompanies lower shareholder returns
- Conclusion
Texas Instruments outlook points to broadly steady quarterly sales
The fourth-quarter revenue range represents sales guidance, not net income. Texas Instruments separately forecast earnings per share of $2.45 to $2.79, keeping the two measures distinct.
The company’s third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance put the revenue forecast in perspective: its $6.05 billion midpoint is almost unchanged from third-quarter revenue of $6.055 billion. The earnings-per-share midpoint is $2.62, matching the reported third-quarter result.
The ranges therefore allow for either a sequential decline or an increase. They do not, by themselves, signal another quarter of growth at the pace recorded in the third quarter.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Third-quarter operating profit | $2.874 billion, up 73% year over year |
| Trailing 12-month dividends paid | $5.174 billion, up 5% |
| Trailing 12-month stock repurchases | $636 million, down 61% |
| Trailing 12-month R&D and SG&A investment | Approximately $4.0 billion |
Industrial and automotive growth supports stronger profit
For the quarter ended September 30, revenue increased 11% from the preceding quarter and 28% from a year earlier. Chairman, President and Chief Executive Haviv Ilan cited continued broad growth across industrial, automotive and data-center markets.
Net income increased 78% from a year earlier to $2.425 billion, while diluted earnings per share rose 77% to $2.62. Reported earnings included a one-cent-per-share reduction that was not in the company’s original guidance.
Analog, the larger of the company’s two main chip businesses, generated revenue of $4.911 billion, up 32%. Embedded Processing revenue increased 21% to $858 million. Both businesses also reported operating-profit growth faster than their revenue growth.
Higher cash generation accompanies lower shareholder returns
Cash flow from operations reached $9.896 billion for the 12 months ended September 30, up 43%. Capital expenditures fell to $2.578 billion from $4.817 billion in the preceding year-long period.
Texas Instruments reported free cash flow of $8.422 billion, up 249%. This non-GAAP measure subtracts capital expenditures from operating cash flow and adds proceeds from U.S. CHIPS Act incentives, which totaled $1.104 billion over the period.
The company returned $5.810 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, down 11%. Dividend payments increased, but a reduction in share buybacks more than offset that rise. Stronger cash generation should not be treated as a guarantee of future dividend payments.
Conclusion
The next benchmark is fourth-quarter performance against the revenue and EPS ranges. Texas Instruments outlook centers on broadly steady sequential results after a third quarter of strong year-over-year growth.
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