Gold and silver futures dropped sharply on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange on Thursday, October 22, as investors looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting. December 2026 gold contracts fell Rs 2,000 to Rs 1,44,196 per 10 grams, while December silver contracts lost Rs 5,700 to Rs 2,03,520 per kilogram.
Key Takeaways
- MCX December gold and silver futures recorded steep losses ahead of next week’s US policy decision.
- CME FedWatch probabilities showed a 16% chance of a rate increase next week and 90% in December.
- An analyst advised traders to await greater stability, while suggesting phased purchases for long-term investors.
Table of Contents
- Interest-rate expectations frame the sell-off
- Gold and silver retreat internationally
- Analyst urges patience on fresh trades
- Conclusion
Interest-rate expectations frame the sell-off
The next US policy decision and the coming week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation figures are central to the market’s outlook. The Fed monitors PCE as it pursues its 2% inflation target.
CME’s FedWatch Tool put the probability of a hike at the forthcoming meeting at 16%, compared with 90% for December.
That outlook matters for bullion because higher rates increase the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets. Gold itself pays no interest, making it more costly to hold when yields rise.
Gold and silver retreat internationally
The weakness extended beyond Indian futures. At 0040 GMT, spot gold was trading at $4,115.50 an ounce, a 0.6% decline. On Wednesday, it had reached $4,104.33, its weakest point since October 15. December US gold futures slipped 0.4% to $4,132.30.
Spot silver lost 1.1% to $57.33 an ounce. Platinum also declined 1.1%, reaching $1,609.95, while palladium fell 0.8% to $1,078.52.
Middle East security risks remained another consideration. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said two people died after Saudi air defences intercepted a drone aimed at a facility at Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield on Wednesday.
US officials said the State Department had directed some diplomats and their families to depart its Saudi missions. Withdrawals of family members from several other regional missions were planned.
Analyst urges patience on fresh trades
Prithvi Finmart’s Manoj Kumar Jain expected volatility to persist during the week, citing movements in oil prices and the dollar index alongside geopolitical uncertainty.
For the session, Jain identified international gold support between $4,084 and $4,110 per troy ounce, with resistance between $4,174 and $4,192. His silver support range was $55.80–$56.60, against resistance of $58.80–$59.50.
He suggested that long-term investors use systematic investment plans to accumulate the metals during the decline, but advised traders to hold back on new positions until conditions stabilised. These were the analyst’s recommendations, rather than independent investment advice.
Conclusion
The metals’ decline puts next week’s Fed decision and US inflation release in focus, with regional security risks adding uncertainty. Jain’s guidance distinguished between gradual long-term purchases and waiting before opening fresh trades.
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Disclaimer
This FinanceVelix article provides general information, not personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market prices, interest rates and economic conditions can change; investments carry a risk of loss. Facts reflect the material available when published and may change. Check important information independently and consult a qualified professional when needed. Mentioning an asset, company, or service is not an endorsement.
