Lula reelection in Brazil’s October 25 presidential vote gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva another term as he navigates US tariffs, critical-mineral policy and a divided Congress. Lula won 51.8% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%; Bolsonaro has declined to concede and called for the vote count to be annulled.

Key Takeaways

  • Lula’s victory ended a run of seven consecutive conservative presidential wins in Latin America over 18 months.
  • Brazil and the United States have interests in trade and critical minerals, despite differences over security policy.
  • Conservative gains in Brazil’s congressional elections leave Lula without a reliable legislative majority.

Lula reelection and relations with Washington

The result keeps Latin America’s largest economy under a leader who has pursued nonalignment, expanded trade ties with China and participated in the BRICS bloc. It also complicates US efforts to bring Brazil into a US-led anti-cartel security coalition. Bolsonaro had pledged to join the alliance.

On October 26, US President Donald Trump questioned how the vote was counted without presenting evidence that the process had been altered. He also said he liked Lula and got along with him.

Tariffs and critical minerals remain in focus

The two governments still have reasons to work together. Washington seeks access to Brazil’s rare earth reserves to reduce its defense sector’s reliance on China, while Lula is seeking foreign investment and tariff relief for Brazilian exporters.

Brazilian lawmakers moved to strengthen controls over critical-mineral exports after the $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazilian firm Serra Verde by US-backed USA Rare Earth. Brazil also accounts for roughly 90% of global niobium production, an input used in aerospace and defense equipment.

The United States imposed double-digit tariffs after Brazilian authorities prosecuted former President Jair Bolsonaro over an alleged coup plot. Lula used the slogan “Brazil belongs to Brazilians” in response.

Congress poses a domestic hurdle

Conservative gains in the October 4 congressional elections leave Lula’s administration without a reliable majority. That could make structural reforms harder to pass as the government faces public pressure over living costs and public safety.

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