The Bulgaria presidential election is set for October 25, 2026, with incumbent Iliana Iotova leading pre-election polls as attacks on ships in the Black Sea heighten security concerns.

Key Takeaways

  • Polls put Iotova ahead of pro-Western challenger Andrey Gyurov.
  • A runoff is scheduled for November 1 if needed.
  • Four vessels were struck off Bulgaria’s coast in October, leaving 21 people missing.

Bulgaria presidential election contenders

Iotova, who took over the largely ceremonial presidency earlier in 2026, is polling at 41% to 47%. Gyurov, a banker and former caretaker prime minister backed by the pro-Western opposition, is polling at 28% to 31%.

Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the pro-Russian far-right Vazrazhdane party, is third in surveys at 10% to 13%. In total, 27 pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates are competing in the first round.

If Iotova wins the election, she would become the first woman elected president of Bulgaria. She assumed the role after Rumen Radev stepped down to run in parliamentary elections and later became prime minister.

Black Sea attacks sharpen security debate

Iotova favors dialogue with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine, while not questioning Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union or NATO. Gyurov has criticized Radev’s foreign policy and supports Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic ties.

The four ship attacks off Bulgaria’s coast are suspected to be spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. Radev said the attacks appeared to serve Russian interests and summoned the Russian ambassador, but his government says there is no evidence directly linking Moscow to them.

Next milestone

A runoff is scheduled for November 1 if needed.

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