US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with early voting underway and Republicans defending narrow congressional majorities. Forecasts point to possible Democratic gains, while President Donald Trump has announced measures aimed at high diesel costs.

Key Takeaways

  • Silver Bulletin’s forecast gives Democrats a 95% probability of winning the House and a 76% probability of winning the Senate.
  • The latest weekly US diesel average rose nearly 10 cents to $6.28 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration.

US midterm elections forecasts and congressional control

As of October 25, Silver Bulletin’s forecast favored Democrats to win both chambers, though it assigned a lower probability to a Senate victory than to a House victory. Other trackers, including RealClearPolling, Decision Desk HQ and VoteHub, have pointed to a close Senate contest.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 47. In the 435-seat House, Republicans hold 218 seats, Democrats 214 and an independent one, with two vacancies. The forecasts are estimates, not election results.

Diesel prices add pressure on the campaign

High costs are a concern for voters. An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found that nearly 80% of Americans blamed Trump for higher costs. Rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have also contributed to discontent among some supporters in Farm Belt states, including Iowa and Kansas.

The Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly diesel average of $6.28 a gallon reversed two weeks of declines and remained near record highs. Trump has promoted fuel measures at campaign rallies and announced $8 billion in new farm aid at a Kansas rally.

What the diesel tax waiver does

Trump signed an executive order allowing red-dyed diesel, typically used off-road, to be used in highway vehicles while temporarily avoiding certain federal tax reporting and record-keeping requirements.

The IRS has not eliminated the federal diesel tax. It has temporarily waived related reporting requirements and penalties through year-end, leaving uncertainty for truck stops and fuel sellers.

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