India private capex plans reached ₹99.7 lakh crore in September 2026, up 39% from a year earlier, but their concentration in a few sectors and states poses risks for lenders, Union Bank of India said.

Key Takeaways

  • Manufacturing and electricity accounted for 74% of the outstanding private investment pipeline.
  • Maharashtra represented 29% of the pipeline, while the top five states held 68%.
  • The bank warned that larger projects and potential execution delays could add to lending risks.

India private capex growth accelerates

The outstanding pipeline was nearly 4.1 times its March 2014 level. It expanded by ₹46.4 lakh crore over the past two years, compared with an increase of ₹7 lakh crore in the eight years to March 2022.

The number of projects rose by 50% to 5,311, while the average project size increased 2.7 times to ₹1,878 crore. The report identified larger project sizes as a risk for lenders.

Investment is concentrated by sector and state

Manufacturing accounted for ₹41.3 lakh crore of the pipeline and electricity for ₹32.2 lakh crore. Together, power generation, IT and IT-enabled services, metals and chemicals represented 80% of the total.

Maharashtra’s share rose from 9% in 2014 to 29%. The report also found that 21 state-industry combinations accounted for 59% of the pipeline, underscoring how much investment is concentrated in particular regions and activities.

Execution and transmission gaps

Union Bank cautioned that project announcements could outpace execution. Over the past two years, the value of planned investments rose 87%, while the number of projects increased 18%.

The report also said investment in power transmission infrastructure had lagged behind power generation, raising concerns about implementation. The pipeline represents planned investment, not completed spending.

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