House swing districts fell from 45 to 37 over the year leading up to October 2026, narrowing the competitive battlefield ahead of the November midterm elections. North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District illustrates the shift: a seat narrowly won by a Democrat in 2022 became a comfortable Republican victory after its boundaries were redrawn.

Key Takeaways

  • Democrat Wiley Nickel won the 13th District by about 9,000 votes in 2022; Republican Brad Knott won the redrawn seat by more than 70,000 votes two years later.
  • A swing district is defined here as one where the previous presidential election was decided by 5 percentage points or fewer.
  • National Democrats have included the 13th District among seats they hope to flip on November 3, though the party faces a difficult race.

How House swing districts have changed

North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature removed Democratic voters in Raleigh from the 13th District and added rural counties extending toward the Virginia border. Trump received 58% of the vote in the new district.

The national decline in competitive seats predates the latest redistricting battles. Greater polarization and the concentration of like-minded voters in different communities have also contributed, while academics continue to debate the relative role of partisan mapmaking.

The contest for the 13th District

Nickel decided against seeking reelection after examining past election results. He later won the Democratic primary for Wake County district attorney; no Republican ran, and he is due to take office in January 2027.

Democratic nominee Paul Barringer, a former Republican and healthcare lawyer, is challenging Knott. National Democrats have identified the seat as a potential target, although local Republicans doubt it will change hands.

Next milestone

Voters will decide the 13th District race in the November 3, 2026 election.

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