Noble earnings for the third quarter of 2026 showed a $6.7 billion contract backlog and a 5% sequential decline in adjusted EBITDA, as some rigs moved between contracts. On its October 27 earnings call, the offshore driller also forecast a stronger performance through 2027.

Key Takeaways

  • Noble secured approximately $560 million in new contract awards, bringing its backlog to $6.7 billion.
  • Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell to $201 million, while free cash flow was negative $48 million.
  • Management narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850 million–$900 million.

Noble earnings and 2026 guidance

The sequential decline in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reflected rigs transitioning between contracts. Higher capital spending contributed to the negative free cash flow.

Noble said later starts for the Voyager and Barrier rigs contributed to its decision to narrow full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to the lower end of its range, at $850 million–$900 million. That figure is a management forecast, not a full-year result.

Management expects a 2027 build

Chief Financial Officer Richard Barker said first-quarter 2027 adjusted EBITDA should be broadly similar to the fourth quarter of 2026, before rising meaningfully each quarter through the year. Noble expects about 20% more contracted capacity in the second half of 2027 than in the first half.

Chief Executive Robert Eifler said he was comfortable filling open periods for the BlackHawk and BlackRhino, although future work has not been secured. Noble’s fleet listing identifies both drillships as operating in the U.S. Gulf.

Deepwater demand and rates

Eifler said 109 of 110 marketed ultra-deepwater rigs were contracted, representing 99% utilization across that marketed fleet. Leading-edge Tier 1 drillship rates had moved into the mid-$400,000s to near $500,000 per day.

The CEO said higher commodity prices had not yet produced a surge in drilling demand, as customers remained cautious about longer-term decisions. In Norway, four of Noble’s five CJ70 jackups were contracted, with leading-edge rates of $230,000 to $300,000 per day depending on the work and duration.

Next milestone

The next scheduled repricing for Noble’s Guyana commercial enabling agreement takes effect on January 1, 2027, for a six-month period.

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