Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on October 29, 2026, as traders assessed diplomatic efforts involving Iran alongside the risk of further attacks in the Middle East. Brent crude traded at $114.40 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 1% to $102.

Key Takeaways

  • Brent had risen more than 1% in the previous session and was up 11% for the month.
  • Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed a Houthi claim that the group targeted the Ras Tanura refinery.
  • Goldman Sachs outlined scenarios ranging from $80 to $120 a barrel, depending on exports and attacks on vessels.

Oil prices retreat after earlier gains

Thursday’s decline followed a rise of more than 1% for Brent in the previous session. Despite the pullback, the international benchmark had gained 11% during October, reaching its highest level since April.

Diplomatic efforts were among the developments traders were assessing. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to negotiations. US President Donald Trump said mediators were exchanging messages between the two sides, but he was unsure whether the talks would succeed.

Attacks and negotiations leave supply risks in focus

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthis said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward Saudi Arabia’s eastern region early Thursday. Yemeni government forces said the Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday.

The Houthis also claimed to have targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with a missile. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported strike.

Qatari mediators presented Iran with a draft proposal to end the war involving the US and Israel, an official briefed on the negotiations said. A senior Iranian official rejected the proposals as unacceptable.

Oil scenarios and the rates backdrop

Goldman Sachs outlined a scenario in which oil could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle East vessels intensify. It also said prices could fall toward $80 if exports return to normal. Those are conditional scenarios, not confirmed price outcomes.

Higher oil prices can add to consumer costs and inflation pressures. In its October 28 policy statement, the Federal Reserve held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% and said inflation remained elevated.

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