Commodity prices are forecast to rise 23% in 2026 as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy supplies and other shocks affect food and metals markets, the World Bank said on October 28.
Key Takeaways
- Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines.
- Food commodity prices could climb a further 7% in 2027 after rising about 10% in 2026.
- The forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies.
Commodity prices face an energy shock
The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook projects that overall prices will fall 7% in 2027 after this year’s increase. The bank cautioned that an escalation in the Middle East conflict or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push energy prices higher.
Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Oil consumption is expected to drop 2.5%, but production remains below consumption, drawing down inventories and leaving markets more exposed to further disruption.
The bank forecasts Brent crude will average $91 a barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, warned that higher energy costs and trade disruptions threaten to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Energy prices | Forecast to rise 32% in 2026 |
| Food commodity prices | Forecast to rise about 10% in 2026 |
| Metals prices | Forecast to rise 25% in 2026 |
| Precious metals prices | Forecast to rise 40% in 2026 |
Food and metals forecasts
Disrupted grain shipments, El Niño and higher fuel and fertilizer costs are adding pressure to food markets. The bank expects food commodity prices to rise a cumulative 18% over 2026 and 2027.
In an adverse scenario combining higher energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño, the bank estimates food commodity prices could be 12% above its 2027 baseline forecast. That scenario is a risk, not the bank’s central projection.
Metals prices are also expected to reach a new high in 2026. The bank cited supply disruptions and demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers; it expects metals prices to decline 3% in 2027. Precious metals demand has remained elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
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