Oil prices rose on Friday, October 30, 2026, with Brent crude up 2.5% to $118 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate gaining 2.30% to $104. The gains came as markets assessed shipping risks and the possibility of further US military action against Iran.
Key Takeaways
- Brent had risen 12% during October and reached a six-month high.
- Goldman Sachs outlined oil-price scenarios of $120 and $80 a barrel, depending on shipping attacks and exports.
Oil prices climb as supply risks remain in focus
The price moves came amid uncertainty over Middle East energy supplies. President Donald Trump had indicated that US airstrikes on Tehran could resume after the following week’s midterm elections. The price changes do not establish that any single development caused the gains.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered, but low inventories and tight supplies of refined products remained in focus. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said an unidentified projectile hit a tanker on Thursday, October 29, as it completed its outbound passage through the strait.
Shipping data and attacks
The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthis said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Saudi Arabia’s eastern region early on October 29. The Houthis also claimed to have targeted the Ras Tanura oil refinery; Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported attack.
Tracking flows through the Strait of Hormuz can be difficult. The EIA's tanker-tracking methodology notes that ship signals have become especially unreliable there since the end of February 2026 and that estimates are frequently revised.
Goldman Sachs outlines price scenarios
Goldman Sachs projected that oil could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate, or fall toward $80 if exports return to normal levels. Those are conditional scenarios, not confirmed price outcomes.
Daan Struyven, the bank’s co-head of global commodities research, said recent attacks showed how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify. The bank also expected natural gas and refined fuel prices to rise.
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