Halloween candy prices are higher in 2026, while seasonal chocolate sales have fallen from a year earlier. The pressure on shoppers comes as Hershey has lowered its full-year organic sales growth forecast.

Key Takeaways

  • Candy and chewing gum prices rose 7.7% in the year through September.
  • Halloween chocolate dollar sales fell 7.2% in the nine weeks ended October 17, NIQ data showed.
  • Hershey cut its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 3% from a range of 3% to 3.5%.

Halloween candy prices outpace broader food inflation

U.S. candy and chewing gum prices increased 7.7% in September from a year earlier, while the broader sugar and sweets category rose 5.5%. Overall food prices increased 2.5% over the same period.

The National Retail Federation’s Halloween spending survey projected $13.5 billion in total holiday spending in 2026, up from the prior year’s record $13.1 billion. The survey, conducted in early September, measures consumers’ plans rather than completed purchases.

Chocolate sales weaken despite lower cocoa prices

NIQ data showed Halloween chocolate dollar sales fell 7.2% from a year earlier in the nine weeks ended October 17. Overall seasonal candy, gum and mint sales declined 6.7%.

Milk chocolate accounted for a $34.4 million decline in sales, while dark chocolate gained $2.3 million, according to NIQ. Smaller candy packs of nine ounces or less gained 24% in dollar sales and 14% in unit sales; every larger package size declined.

Cocoa prices have fallen sharply from historic highs, but much of the chocolate on shelves for Halloween was made with cocoa purchased six to 12 months earlier. Wells Fargo Agri-Food estimated that chocolate prices would be about 8% higher than last Halloween.

Hershey lowers its sales outlook

Hershey lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast when it reported third-quarter results on October 29. Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said the revised forecast implied roughly flat organic growth in the fourth quarter and pointed to consumer and cost pressures.

On the earnings call, Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner said the company was looking to offer more value through targeted promotions rather than broad price reductions.

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