Robinhood prediction markets could generate $1.7 billion in annual revenue by 2028, exceeding the company’s projected cryptocurrency revenue, Bernstein analysts forecast on October 26, 2026. The estimate puts event contracts among the trading platform’s potential growth drivers ahead of its third-quarter results.
Key Takeaways
- Bernstein projects prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion in 2028, versus $1.6 billion from crypto.
- The forecasts are analyst estimates, not reported results or Robinhood management guidance.
- Bernstein expects third-quarter 2026 revenue of about $1.5 billion, up 13% from the previous quarter.
Table of Contents
- Robinhood prediction markets could become a larger revenue source
- How event contracts generate trading revenue
- Quarterly results provide the next checkpoint
- Conclusion
Robinhood prediction markets could become a larger revenue source
Bernstein expects revenue from Robinhood’s prediction-market business to rise from about $650 million in 2026 to $1.7 billion in 2028. That would represent roughly 18% of the analysts’ projected $9.4 billion in total company revenue for 2028.
The forecast implies that prediction-market revenue would more than double over two years and narrowly overtake crypto revenue. The projected gap between the two businesses is $100 million, making the expected change in their relative size modest even as the event-contract business expands substantially.
These figures describe Bernstein’s expectations for future revenue. They do not establish that prediction markets have already surpassed crypto, or that Robinhood has adopted the same targets.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| 2026 revenue estimate | Bernstein raised its estimate by 3%. |
| 2027 revenue estimate | Bernstein raised its estimate by 4%. |
| 2028 revenue estimate | Bernstein raised its estimate by 3%. |
| Share-price target | Unchanged at $160; an analyst target, not a guaranteed outcome. |
How event contracts generate trading revenue
Robinhood’s event contracts overview explains that customers can buy Yes or No contracts on whether a specified outcome will occur. A correct prediction settles at $1 per contract, while an incorrect prediction settles at $0. The product is offered through Robinhood Derivatives and partnered exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Robinhood charges commissions on these trades, while exchanges may impose separate fees. Its product documentation describes a probability-weighted commission calculation, with different rates for Gold subscribers and other customers and a maximum Robinhood commission of $0.01 per contract.
That fee structure distinguishes contract trading activity from company revenue: the amount customers trade is not itself the amount Robinhood earns. The product documentation explains the mechanics but does not validate Bernstein’s revenue projections.
Quarterly results provide the next checkpoint
Bernstein’s forecast arrived one day before Robinhood’s scheduled third-quarter 2026 report on October 27. The analysts expect approximately $1.5 billion in quarterly revenue, a 13% sequential increase, supported by higher equity notional volumes, options activity, event-contract volumes and a recovery in crypto trading volume.
The firm also increased its annual revenue estimates, citing higher assumptions for equities and crypto revenue, while leaving its share-price target unchanged. Those revisions concern the broader trading business rather than prediction markets alone.
Conclusion
Robinhood’s October 27 third-quarter results are the next scheduled checkpoint for assessing current trading activity against Bernstein’s expectations. The projected 2028 revenue crossover remains an analyst forecast, not an achieved milestone.
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