Bernstein SocGen Group raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,450 from $1,385 and retained an Outperform rating on October 26, 2026, expecting international Mounjaro sales to help third-quarter revenue exceed consensus. Lilly shares were up 0.41% at 11:50 a.m. ET, an intraday move rather than a closing return.

Eli Lilly revenue forecast edges above consensus

Bernstein forecasts third-quarter revenue of $22.62 billion, 0.8% above the $22.45 billion consensus estimate. Its adjusted earnings forecast of $5.48 per share is in line with consensus and incorporates $4.20 billion of acquired in-process research and development.

The firm's expected revenue upside centers on international Mounjaro sales. Its forecasts for Zepbound and Foundayo are broadly aligned with other analysts' expectations, making Mounjaro the principal point of difference in the quarterly sales outlook.

For 2026, Bernstein raised its revenue estimate to $90.01 billion but lowered its earnings estimate to $33.19 per share to reflect the third-quarter research charge. It also increased its 2027 forecasts to $111.4 billion in revenue and $53.09 in earnings per share, mainly on higher expectations for Zepbound and U.S. Mounjaro sales. These are brokerage estimates, not Lilly management guidance or reported results.

BALANCE timing changes the brokerage's assumptions

Bernstein shifted the modeled impact of BALANCE pricing from 2027 to 2028. The firm said that change supports near-term estimates but does not represent a permanent improvement in the economics.

CMS's BALANCE drug-pricing and coverage model provides the policy context: the voluntary program involves negotiating terms with GLP-1 manufacturers on behalf of state Medicaid agencies and Medicare Part D plan sponsors. CMS also specifies Medicare GLP-1 Bridge access from July 1, 2026, through December 31, 2027. Those program details do not establish Bernstein's assumed 2028 pricing impact or guarantee a particular earnings benefit for Lilly.

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