BSE shares rose as much as 4.3% to an intraday high of Rs 3,369 on October 26, 2026, after Motilal Oswal upgraded the Indian exchange operator’s stock to Buy and set a target price of Rs 4,000.

Key Takeaways

  • The brokerage cited a recovery in derivatives trading volumes and growth in BSE’s cash market.
  • Motilal Oswal raised its revenue and profit estimates for FY27 and FY28.
  • The stock price was an intraday high, not a closing price.

Why the brokerage upgraded BSE shares

Motilal Oswal pointed to BSE’s operating leverage, which allows additional revenue to support profit growth. The brokerage said the company’s EBITDA margin rose from 9% in FY21 to more than 65% in FY26.

It expects the margin to reach 70%, with revenue growing at a compound annual rate of 23% and profit after tax at about 27% over FY26–FY28. Those figures are brokerage forecasts, not reported results.

The brokerage also raised its revenue and profit estimates for both FY27 and FY28, citing the pace of trading volumes, a potential benefit from a reversal of CAS and higher cash-market volumes following NSE’s listing.

ItemDetails
FY27 estimate revisionsRevenue raised 8%; profit after tax raised 10%.
FY28 estimate revisionsRevenue raised 10%; profit after tax raised 12%.
Cash-market members829 in September 2026, up from 806 a year earlier.
Cash-market participationA record 6.16 million unique client codes traded in September 2026.

Derivatives volumes recover after reset

BSE’s notional futures and options average daily traded turnover fell 35% in August 2026 from the April–July average after regulatory changes, including stricter lending norms for proprietary traders and CAS implementation. Turnover then rose 6% month on month in September and was up 49% month on month in October as of October 20.

Premium turnover accounts for 60% of BSE’s revenue, and the exchange has captured more than 30% of that market, the brokerage said. BSE’s share of index options notional turnover was around 50% within three years of its 2023 derivatives relaunch.

Cash trading and costs

BSE’s cash-market share rose from a plateau of about 7% to 9% over the preceding two months. Cash average daily traded turnover reached Rs 105 billion in the second quarter of FY27, a quarterly high.

A slowdown in trading could weigh on revenue, although Motilal Oswal said lower clearing-house and regulatory expenses could partly offset the effect on profitability. Around 55% of BSE’s expenses are activity-dependent, with the remaining 45% fixed.

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