India rice exports rose 13% by value to ₹54,937.71 crore in the first half of fiscal 2026–27, government data showed. The Indian Rice Exporters Federation expects export volumes to increase, citing competitive prices and prospects for stronger global demand.
Key Takeaways
- The federation said Indian export prices were about 10% below alternatives from Thailand or Myanmar.
- Its vice president expects shipments to exceed a US Department of Agriculture projection of 24 million tonnes this year.
- The federation identified prolonged conflict affecting Middle Eastern buyers and trade-policy changes as risks.
India rice exports and the price outlook
The export value covers April through September 2026. India produced more than 154 million tonnes of rice in the 2025–26 crop year, which ended in June, and the federation said surplus stocks would help meet demand.
The federation’s vice president said Indian rice prices were at an all-time low and export prices were about 10% cheaper than the next alternatives available from Thailand or Myanmar. The source did not provide a specific price or observation date.
He expects global demand to rise because of a potential fall in production amid the threat of El Niño. That is an outlook, rather than a confirmed production decline.
Volume forecast and risks
The vice president said India exported around 22 million tonnes of rice last year and that the US Department of Agriculture had projected around 24 million tonnes this year. He expects exports to surpass that projection; the higher figure remains a forecast, not a completed result.
Rice exports were worth around ₹1,12,000 crore in the previous fiscal year, with basmati and non-basmati contributing almost equally, he said.
He identified the Iran crisis as a major challenge, saying more than 74% of India’s basmati exports go to the Middle East. Although conflict had increased demand, he questioned whether buyers could sustain purchases at higher prices if it continued for a long time.
Changes in rice trade policy could also pose a risk, he said. The federation said there was no export duty, minimum export price or restriction on rice exports at the time of his comments and called for the current policy to continue.
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