The Equifax outlook for 2026 was lowered on October 20 as management expected a weaker U.S. mortgage market to persist through year-end, despite higher third-quarter revenue and profit. For the quarter ended September 30, revenue increased 10% to $1.693 billion and net income attributable to Equifax rose 32% to $211.7 million.
Key Takeaways
- Equifax reduced its full-year revenue guidance midpoint to $6.661 billion because of mortgage-market weakness.
- Third-quarter diluted earnings per share rose 39% to $1.79, while adjusted EPS increased 11% to $2.26.
- Growth outside U.S. mortgages remained broad-based, with the company maintaining its high-single-digit growth guidance for Diversified Markets.
Table of Contents
- Equifax outlook reflects a weaker mortgage market
- Profit growth outpaced revenue
- Business units showed different mortgage trends
- Cash returns and acquisition plans continued
- Conclusion
Equifax outlook reflects a weaker mortgage market
Equifax’s third-quarter 2026 results announcement set the revised annual revenue midpoint at $6.661 billion. Chief Executive Officer Mark Begor said the mortgage-market weakness seen in the latter half of the third quarter was expected to continue for the remainder of 2026.
The company also lowered its full-year adjusted earnings-per-share midpoint by $0.04 to $8.50, still within its previous guidance range. Begor said expense management and AI-driven operating efficiencies were expected to largely offset the gross-margin impact of lower mortgage revenue.
The fourth-quarter revenue forecast implies growth of 3.5% to 5.4%, below the third quarter’s 10% increase. That points to a slower finish to the year, even as management maintained its growth expectations for Diversified Markets.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue guidance | $1.605 billion–$1.635 billion |
| Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.07–$2.17 |
| Full-year 2026 revenue guidance | $6.646 billion–$6.676 billion |
| Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $8.45–$8.55 |
Profit growth outpaced revenue
Third-quarter net income increased from $160.2 million a year earlier, while diluted EPS rose from $1.29 to $1.79. Revenue grew 9% when measured using prior-year exchange rates, compared with the reported increase of 10%.
Adjusted EPS reached $2.26, up 11% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA margin widened to 33.1% from 32.7%. These non-GAAP measures exclude specified items; adjusted EPS excludes costs including acquisition-related amortization and certain legal, regulatory and restructuring expenses.
Business units showed different mortgage trends
U.S. Information Solutions led the three reporting segments with 13% revenue growth to $599.1 million. Its mortgage revenue rose 28%, while Diversified Markets revenue increased 6%, led by financial institutions and auto.
Workforce Solutions revenue increased 7% to $693.9 million. Verification Services grew 9%, but Employer Services declined 5%. Mortgage revenue in the segment was approximately flat, contrasting with the stronger mortgage growth at U.S. Information Solutions.
International revenue increased 9% to $399.5 million, or 7% in local currency. Across Equifax, U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% despite the weaker underlying market described by management. The outlook reduction therefore concerns expected demand ahead, rather than a year-over-year decline in third-quarter mortgage revenue.
Cash returns and acquisition plans continued
Equifax returned $158 million to shareholders during the quarter: $92 million through repurchases of 0.5 million shares and $66 million through quarterly dividends.
The company also said it expected its acquisition of Círculo de Crédito to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. That transaction remained pending at the time of the results announcement.
Conclusion
The fourth-quarter results will show whether cost controls can cushion the expected mortgage slowdown. Equifax’s other stated year-end milestone is the planned closing of its Círculo de Crédito acquisition.
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