ECB consumer expectations for September 2026 showed a slight rise in anticipated inflation alongside a weaker economic outlook. The European Central Bank’s survey, released on October 23, put median inflation expectations for the next 12 months at 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August, while consumers became more pessimistic about growth and unemployment.
Key Takeaways
- Near-term inflation expectations rose, but three-year and five-year expectations were unchanged.
- Consumers expected stronger nominal income and spending growth despite a weaker economic outlook.
- More households reported tighter credit access and expected conditions to tighten further.
Table of Contents
- ECB consumer expectations show a near-term inflation increase
- Growth and employment expectations deteriorate
- Income and spending plans rise as credit tightens
- Survey scope and the next release
- Conclusion
ECB consumer expectations show a near-term inflation increase
Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. The rise matched the 0.1-percentage-point increase in year-ahead inflation expectations, while longer-term readings held steady.
The ECB’s inflation perceptions and expectations indicators cover past price perceptions and expectations at one-year, three-year and five-year horizons, with monthly breakdowns by country, age and income group. These are household assessments, not measurements of actual consumer-price inflation.
Uncertainty about inflation over the next year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the Middle East conflict. Lower-income respondents continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income respondents, while younger adults reported lower readings than older groups.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Three-year inflation expectations | Median unchanged at 2.9% in September. |
| Five-year inflation expectations | Median unchanged at 2.5% in September. |
| Expected home-price growth | 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. |
| Expected mortgage interest rate | 4.9% in 12 months’ time. |
Growth and employment expectations deteriorate
Consumers expected economic growth over the next 12 months to be -1.5%, down from -1.2% in August. Their expected unemployment rate a year ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. These figures describe respondents’ outlook, rather than an ECB economic forecast.
The expected unemployment rate remained only moderately above the perceived current rate of 10.6%. The ECB characterized that gap as suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook, even as the month-to-month readings weakened.
Income differences were substantial. Households in the bottom income quintile expected unemployment of 13.6% in a year’s time, compared with 9.7% among those in the top quintile.
Income and spending plans rise as credit tightens
Expected nominal income growth over the next year edged up to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also increased, reaching 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year rose to 5.3% from 5.2%.
The spending figures are nominal: they do not separate changes in prices from changes in the volume of purchases. Higher anticipated spending therefore does not, by itself, establish that households plan to buy more goods and services.
Housing expectations also strengthened slightly. At the same time, the net share of households reporting tighter credit access over the previous year increased, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions over the following year. The release did not quantify those increases.
Survey scope and the next release
The monthly online survey covers around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries. Fieldwork for the September wave took place between August 27 and September 28, 2026.
The ECB uses the results for policy analysis alongside other data. Survey responses do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
Conclusion
September’s results combined firmer near-term price expectations with a weaker growth outlook, without a rise in longer-term inflation expectations. The next confirmed update is the October survey release, scheduled for November 27, 2026.
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