Asset management growth is expected to continue through 2030, but rising assets will not necessarily translate into stronger profitability. Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman project annual industry revenue growth of about 7%, behind roughly 9% growth in assets under management, as average management fees decline.
Key Takeaways
- Global managed assets are projected to reach roughly $247 trillion by 2030.
- Private markets and customized investment solutions are expected to reshape the revenue mix.
- Enterprise-wide AI could improve efficiency, but adoption alone has not established financial gains.
Table of Contents
- Asset management growth masks pressure on fees
- Private markets and customization reshape revenue
- AI savings depend on changes to how firms operate
- Conclusion
Asset management growth masks pressure on fees
The joint 2026 asset management outlook from Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman puts global managed assets at $159 trillion entering 2026. It forecasts further expansion through 2030 while warning that asset totals alone are an incomplete measure of business performance.
More than 80% of asset-under-management growth in 2025 came from market performance rather than net new investment. That distinction matters: rising markets can increase a manager’s asset base without demonstrating that it is attracting new client money.
Average management fees are forecast to fall from around 35 basis points to 32 basis points by 2030. In practical terms, the industry would earn less management-fee revenue per dollar managed, helping explain why revenue is expected to grow more slowly than assets.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Forecast horizon | Through 2030. |
| Global managed assets | $159 trillion entering 2026; roughly $247 trillion projected by 2030. |
| Annual growth gap | Revenue growth of about 7% versus roughly 9% for assets under management. |
| Average management fees | Expected to decline from about 0.35% to 0.32% of assets. |
| Potential AI efficiency gain | Up to a 15-percentage-point improvement in cost-to-income ratios for leading asset managers by 2030. |
Private markets and customization reshape revenue
Morgan Stanley estimates that private markets will generate 39% of industry revenue by 2030 while accounting for just 15% of assets under management. The forecast points to the importance of product mix, rather than asset gathering alone, in determining a manager’s revenue opportunity.
The joint research also identifies a shift in demand within private markets. Insurance-affiliated mandates grew approximately 18% in 2025 and semi-liquid wealth vehicles about 25%, while traditional drawdown funds experienced net capital contraction of more than 2%.
Customized investment solutions are expanding beyond large institutions and ultra-high-net-worth clients. In US wealth channels, externally managed custom-model assets rose from roughly $90 billion in 2023 to about $300 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
The researchers forecast those assets could reach $750 billion to $1.6 trillion by 2030. Delivering that customization at scale requires connected systems for portfolio construction, implementation, monitoring and reporting, rather than rebuilding the process for each account.
AI savings depend on changes to how firms operate
AI is already present in investment processes: 55% of asset managers have integrated it into at least one area, while another 27% are piloting applications. But using the technology is not the same as demonstrating a financial return.
Half of asset and wealth management chief executives report either no AI-driven cost savings or that it is too early to assess them, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum and New York Stock Exchange survey. The findings are similar for revenue generation.
The researchers estimate that leading asset managers using shared data, reusable AI capabilities and redesigned workflows could improve cost-to-income ratios by up to 15 percentage points by 2030. That is a conditional estimate, not a saving already achieved across the industry.
The practical distinction is between making isolated tasks faster and changing an entire workflow. Financial benefits depend on removing work or using freed-up capacity to serve more clients and generate additional revenue.
Conclusion
The outlook through 2030 separates asset growth from profit growth. The measures to watch are fee levels, the mix of products attracting client money and whether broader AI deployment produces measurable cost savings—not simply larger asset totals.
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Disclaimer
This FinanceVelix article provides general information, not personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market prices, interest rates and economic conditions can change; investments carry a risk of loss. Facts reflect the material available when published and may change. Check important information independently and consult a qualified professional when needed. Mentioning an asset, company, or service is not an endorsement.
