The India monsoon deficit has left rainfall 12.6% below the long-period average in 2026, raising concerns about water availability for winter crops as wheat sowing begins. The shortfall came during a strong El Niño weather pattern.

Key Takeaways

  • Rainfall was at least 20% below the long-period average in 43% of India’s 740 meteorological districts.
  • Wheat sowing stood at 11,000 hectares, less than half the level at the same point a year earlier.
  • Rural consumer goods volumes fell 5% year on year in the second quarter.

India monsoon deficit and crop conditions

The southwest monsoon brings 70% of India’s precipitation. Its shortfall was particularly pronounced in peninsular India, where rainfall was 17% to 32% below the long-period average.

Low soil moisture and reservoir levels could constrain rabi crops, the winter growing season that includes wheat, mustard, lentils and chana. Nearly half of 316 major reservoirs were described as dry across northern, southern and eastern states.

The wheat sowing figure was an early-season reading, not a final measure of planted area. Paddy, soybeans and maize are among the kharif, or monsoon-season, crops exposed to the rainfall shortfall.

Rural demand was already weak

Consumer goods volumes fell 2% year on year in the second quarter, including a 5% decline in rural volumes. Wholesale tractor sales in September were 18% below their year-earlier level.

Food accounts for a larger share of rural household spending, making firm food inflation a constraint on spending capacity. The figures do not establish how much of the decline in consumer goods or tractor sales was caused by the monsoon.

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