Iran talks face a decision point as US President Donald Trump weighs an agreement with Tehran against renewed military action, with disruption to trade through the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy markets in focus.

Key Takeaways

  • Trump said on October 25 that he was deciding whether to make a deal or “finish it off.”
  • Qatari mediators visited Tehran, while officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were meeting Iran’s leadership.
  • Overall trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely curtailed, even as Trump cited a recovery in crude oil flows.

Iran talks and the threat of strikes

In a Fox News interview on October 25, 2026, Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to reach a deal with Iran or pursue further military action.

The last confirmed US strikes on Iran were on September 1. Trump previously said attacks would not resume until after the November 3 US midterm elections. Tehran says it is preparing a military response to any US strikes.

Trump identified Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried site linked to Iran’s nuclear program, as a potential target. His comments did not establish that another strike had been ordered.

Hormuz trade remains disrupted

Trump repeated his claim that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz, citing crude oil flows returning to prewar levels. Washington and Tehran have both repeatedly claimed control of the waterway.

Overall trade flows through the strait remain severely curtailed, while energy prices remain elevated amid the disruption and a global refining squeeze. Earlier in October, a Singapore-flagged container ship sank in the strait after an unidentified projectile struck it and it caught fire.

Regional officials meet in Tehran

Qatari mediators visited Tehran on October 25. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were meeting Iran’s leadership there on October 26.

The meeting follows Houthi missile and drone attacks on sites across Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh airport and an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco. Saudi Arabia postponed its Future Investment Initiative conference until 2027 because of security concerns after fatal strikes.

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