The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed methane rule rollback would lower domestic crude prices by an estimated 11 cents a barrel in 2027, or 0.14%, according to the agency’s economic modeling. The proposal, announced on October 27, 2026, would ease requirements for oil and gas operators but is not yet final.

Key Takeaways

  • The EPA projects domestic oil production would rise by 0.09% in 2027 under the proposal.
  • The agency estimates an additional 60 million short tons of methane emissions from 2027 through 2050.
  • The proposal must go through public comment and further review; no effective date for the changes has been announced.

What the methane rule rollback would change

The proposal would revise 2024 Clean Air Act standards for new and existing oil and natural gas operations. The EPA is considering separate requirements for well sites based either on production levels or on whether extraction is conventional or unconventional.

The EPA’s proposed regulatory changes would also rescind the Super Emitter Program, which certifies third-party monitors to identify major methane releases. For gas produced alongside oil, the agency proposes allowing flaring or other control devices that are 95% efficient, rather than requiring the gas to reach a sales line.

The agency also proposes changes to requirements for covers, closed vent systems and control devices. Operators of marginal wells, which produce relatively small amounts of oil and gas, are among those that could be affected by the revised standards.

Projected costs, emissions and production

The EPA estimates that the proposal would save the U.S. economy about $45 billion from 2027 through 2050, including roughly $42 billion in lower compliance costs. Its estimate also accounts for about $4.2 billion in lost revenue because operators would capture less gas for sale or use.

The projected increase in methane emissions and the modest 2027 oil-price change are estimates, not observed outcomes. Marginal wells account for around 80% of active U.S. wells but less than 10% of production, according to the International Energy Agency.

Next milestone

The next step is a public comment period of at least 45 days and a public hearing after the proposal is published in the Federal Register.

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