Emerging market spending online is projected to increase by $8.7 trillion between 2026 and 2036, accounting for 60% of the global increase, a study by World Data Lab and payments company EBANX found. The study also forecasts that many new online shoppers will not have credit cards.
Key Takeaways
- Asia is projected to add 702 million middle-class adults over the decade.
- Two-thirds of new online buyers in emerging markets are expected to arrive without a credit card.
- Adults aged 45 and over are projected to account for 51% of emerging markets’ online spending growth.
Emerging market spending growth by country
The study projects global online spending will rise from $11 trillion in 2026 to $25.6 trillion in 2036. China and India are expected to lead the increase among emerging markets, followed by Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico.
World Data Lab and EBANX modelled consumer spending, demographics and financial access across 184 countries through 2036, using World Bank Global Findex data, World Data Lab consumer models and EBANX’s payments experience.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| China | Projected online spending increase of $4.7 trillion, 2026–2036 |
| India | Projected increase of $1.3 trillion |
| Brazil | Projected increase of $249 billion |
| Indonesia | Projected increase of $243 billion |
| Mexico | Projected increase of $191 billion |
Card access and online shopping
By 2036, the study forecasts that 20% of adults in emerging markets will hold a credit card, compared with 66% in developed markets. Globally, it projects 834 million additional online buyers between 2026 and 2036, against 281 million additional credit card holders.
Among 2.6 billion emerging-market adults spending $6 to $25 a day, 70% already pay merchants digitally, while 33% shop online. Some have bank accounts or mobile wallets but lack a card usable at an international checkout.
The findings suggest that merchants seeking to reach these consumers may need to offer payment methods beyond credit cards. EBANX provides payment services for merchants in emerging markets.
Older shoppers and recurring payments
The study projects that consumers aged 45 and over will add $4.4 trillion in online spending in emerging markets through 2036. Spending by adults aged 65 and over is forecast to grow 12% a year, faster than for any other age group.
Recurring categories, including streaming, software as a service and online education, are projected to reach $2.1 trillion in annual spending in emerging markets by 2036. The study expects $1.1 trillion of that spending to come from adults without a credit card.
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