A Beetle spread experiment published in 2009 found that populations starting under identical laboratory conditions spread at sharply different rates, highlighting the difficulty of predicting biological invasions.

Key Takeaways

  • The fastest populations crossed as many as 31 habitat patches; the slowest covered roughly a third of that distance.
  • A separate 2021 study estimated worldwide biological invasion costs at least $1.288 trillion from 1970 to 2017.

Beetle spread experiment tracked 13 generations

Brett Melbourne and Alan Hastings published the study in Science in September 2009. The researchers created 30 identical landscapes, each with identical habitat patches and an initial population of 20 red flour beetles.

Over 15 months and 13 generations, the populations spread outward at different rates. The roughly threefold gap was measured in habitat patches crossed, rather than as a raw distance.

Why unpredictable spread matters

The findings suggest that natural variability, potentially including chance or genetics, can affect how species spread even when environmental conditions are held constant. That makes precise forecasts difficult and can complicate efforts to manage invasions.

The experiment did not measure financial costs. Separately, a 2021 Nature study estimated that biological invasions worldwide cost at least $1.288 trillion in 2017 dollars between 1970 and 2017. The study said the true cost was severely underestimated.

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